Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.015303 0.017327 0.019523 0.022081 0.024983 0.028171 0.031943
2025-07-20 0.012261 0.015081 0.018402 0.022607 0.027794 0.033993 0.041975
2025-07-27 0.010676 0.013896 0.017909 0.023288 0.030320 0.039222 0.051380
2025-08-03 0.009247 0.012603 0.016984 0.023134 0.031565 0.042756 0.058796
2025-08-10 0.008205 0.011638 0.016301 0.023115 0.032852 0.046317 0.066446
2025-08-17 0.007251 0.010656 0.015448 0.022707 0.033468 0.048908 0.072875
2025-08-24 0.006659 0.010108 0.015124 0.022976 0.035019 0.052892 0.081616
2025-08-31 0.006046 0.009457 0.014567 0.022814 0.035863 0.055844 0.089006
2025-09-07 0.005686 0.009146 0.014480 0.023338 0.037776 0.060544 0.099499
2025-09-14 0.005091 0.008406 0.013650 0.022592 0.037572 0.061852 0.104583
2025-09-21 0.004667 0.007898 0.013138 0.022304 0.038064 0.064284 0.111694
2025-09-28 0.004207 0.007287 0.012402 0.021564 0.037711 0.065247 0.116327
2025-10-05 0.004055 0.007195 0.012537 0.022345 0.040076 0.071097 0.130188
2025-10-12 0.003872 0.007033 0.012538 0.022890 0.042073 0.076482 0.143736
2025-10-19 0.003728 0.006925 0.012620 0.023579 0.044379 0.082594 0.159176
2025-10-26 0.003474 0.006592 0.012264 0.023423 0.045087 0.085807 0.169363
2025-11-02 0.003262 0.006319 0.011996 0.023404 0.046043 0.089546 0.180893
2025-11-09 0.003020 0.005966 0.011547 0.022990 0.046185 0.091712 0.189445
2025-11-16 0.002882 0.005804 0.011451 0.023263 0.047710 0.096712 0.204233
2025-11-23 0.002705 0.005551 0.011152 0.023099 0.048323 0.099914 0.215526
2025-11-30 0.002617 0.005470 0.011191 0.023630 0.050422 0.106331 0.234277
2025-12-07 0.002404 0.005113 0.010640 0.022875 0.049721 0.106808 0.240044
2025-12-14 0.002254 0.004876 0.010320 0.022583 0.049992 0.109369 0.250675